A few more words about why I predicted in 2011 that a Donald Trump presidential run would be sensational.
Before
reading this update, please be aware that I am not supporting or
otherwise promoting the Trump presidential run. Politically, I am an
independent who thinks the binary party system is ridiculous.
All I am doing is bringing you up to date on my
original insight (
How I Predicted Trump's Current Success) - and taking a victory run while reminding you why I had a 5 year advanced vision that turned out to be incredibly true.
(Sometimes this works with my investments too - but generally, only after they declare bankruptcy first!)
There
is also a TV character angle that we need to take seriously because it
actually worked for Obama and now seems to be working for Trump. Yet
almost no one acknowledges it - so I will.
The key points are this:• Big picture guy.
Trump, regardless of your opinion, was the first candidate I have heard
talking about the world business market and political forces as a big
picture - as a game if you will. Just as importantly, he is telling us
what we are learning the hard way - we are no longer leading and not
willing to make the tough structural changes, show strength or pull
rank. We have become a influential player but no longer the leader.
Other contenders including ISIS seem to have taken over.
• No politico.
Trump came across as an outspoken CEO, not as a politician - and it was
incredibly refreshing. Most of all, he did not speak as a lawyer like
the typical approach of politician. We have become so accustomed to
politicians being lawyers first that we have forgotten that, lawyers are
really not trained for leadership but rather to work with rules, make
arguments no matter how tenuous and behave cautiously. That is useful
most of the time but truly bad if the country needs to reset itself for a
new world order.
To this day, no other political candidate has
been able to talk about rethinking the US role within the context of the
new world realities of the 21st Century.
• What doesn't kill him, helps him.
The negatives about Trump - his bankruptcies, sharp business dealings,
incessant brand hawking, womanizing and his blunt opinions are actually
working to his advantage. Even the virulent opposition and negative
press has helped him. Why? Because he has become a proxy for the way the
rest of the world now sees us. Most politicians want to be nice and
seem able to calm down the rest of the world. Trump is willing to say,
"the hell with them." So the question is: which is more American and
which is more likely to work?
Keep in mind too, that,
technically, America is bankrupt since it owes more than it sells. Who
better to get us out of bankruptcy than someone who actually knows how
to bluster and wiggle his way out of bankruptcies! As for the
womanizing, Hillary is going to have a hard time taking on the issue
because she is seen as her husband's enabler while Trump, for his
infidelities seems to have a great bunch of kids in spite of everything.
On the down side.Since I haven't heard big picture thinking from any politician since my days of college
PoliSci
when von Metternich, Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger owned that
platform, I can see why Trump's statements stand out. Rather like a
really strong peppermint - it's not for everyone, but it sure clears the
sinuses.
On the other hand, Hitler and Mussolini had their own
forms of big picture thinking. So did Mao and Stalin. Much of what has
happened since WWII has been the West's aversion to that form of
leadership because of the devastating downside. Yet, the US lingered on
with Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.
But to compare Trump
to Hitler or even to Kennedy and Johnson, who escalated Vietnam or
Bush's absurd nation-building in Iraq, is a stretch. In that regard,
Trump the trickster is more like political inoculation than infection.
He is just not likely to swallow some bible or manifest destiny
playbook. He'll bluster and bully, carry a big stick and wag it
vigorously but probably never use it.
You be the judge.
What Should a Candidate Do?What does matter though, is if you are a political opponent to Trump, then you need to understand the following:
• Talk the Big Game.
This is no time for blocking and tackling. Hail Mary's help. Most of
all ,you have to have some really big ideas - or go home. Even Bernie's
socialism - American political poison - had a great run because of his
conviction.
• Who is your TV avatar? Find it and play to it. (More below.....)
• You can't play Trump's game. Trump's fire-throwing approach is
sui generis.
But even if you play your game, it has to be about the political
revolution, but on the practical side. A definite opening exists for a
high tech visionary who talks the new world vision. Obama tapped into it
and strangely enough, Trump's crazy tweets send out a roughly similar
message.
• Stand up for America? Like it or not, a
significant number of Americans think we are being pushed around. Tell
us how you would stand up to it. Being lawerly won't help. Your body
language helps. Hillary's body language and deep voice mode is pretty
good but she has yet to find the right "world fight" approach. Right
now, she just has words. Would she really stand up to North Korea and
bring back that student? Could she face down an ISIS long knife.....?
Can she kick Putin to the kerb?
The TV Avatar issueThis
is a high concept issue based on how most people really interact with
their politicians. It's the TV, dummy - that's how we know them. Not
only that, but it is
who you remind them of that matters.
Obama is not the first black man to win worldwide public support on TV. Bill Cosby did it first. He became a
Father Knows Best without
irony, warm humor and a ton of cool. He was fortified and in some ways
may have begot, Nelson Mandela. In archetypal terms, Obama is the redux
of Cosby and Mandela. (The fact that Cosby turned out to be a highly
questionable character could be a bit of a problem for Obama's legacy.)
Trump is Trump from the
Apprentice
who came across as a generally reasonable person in spite of his
previously controversial reputation. The fact that his children turned
out to be as impressive as they did is a huge plus. Trump's issue is
wholesome, grounded in his business, unspoiled and highly supportive of
him despite his womanizing past. Trump's worst nightmare may be any one
of them getting arrested for DUI. This happened to the Bushes but meant
little for GW. This would be devastating for Trump who doesn't drink or
smoke. (Come to think to, nor did Hitler.....but then his hands were
very, very small......).
The fact that people sometimes make fun
of Trump as a comic book character like Superman isn't exactly hurting
him. Subliminally, it is actually winning over a committed following.
The
problem for Hillary is that she comes across as a lot more like Maude
than Xenia or for that matter, Rhonda Rousey before losing to Holly
Holm. This is main the reason she does not engender enthusiasm and has a
bit of a male problem. People tend to resent bossy Mom figures. They
just want go out on their own.......
Kasich's aw-shucks persona looks a lot Andy Griffith meets Columbo. Hard to see him commanding the world.....
Ted
Cruz looks a lot like an early Nixon crossed with the Joker. He should
hire a makeup artist to help him lose the chiseled face look. In his
case it looks like sharp practice. As for the bible stuff - it is just
way too old school.
So there it is folks. An honest, no-holds-barred view of the candidates.
If
the candidates don't adapt, I predict that Trump will squeak by as our
next Prez. For sure, every comedian in American will vote for him. But
even the minorities that are supposed to hate him would prefer a tough
guy who speaks up, than a wishy-washy candidate that says the right
things but doesn't really look like they will stand up to bullies. Call
it the law of the wild.......
People will also be reminded of
just how ridiculous Ronald Reagan looked at the time, but he was the one
ridiculous guy who was willing to stand up to Gorbachev, bringing down
the USSR and changing the world order.
We still haven't lost our
love for the John Wayne figure that Reagan channeled.......and to a lot
of people, it looks like he just might be having a third coming....
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